Despite lots of snow and frozen rivers, eastern Nebraska does not face anywhere near the same flood risk as it did in 2019
In the midst of one of the worst cold snaps in years, it might be hard to think about spring flooding.
But it’s on the minds of the state’s climate experts.
David Pearson, service hydrologist at the National Weather Service in Omaha, put out his first spring flood outlook of the season Thursday.
Despite all the snow and the extremely low temperatures that have iced up rivers, the risk for flooding in the spring is nowhere near as high as it was the past two years.
In fact, according to the forecast, the risk is normal or even below-normal in most places.
“The overall flood risk for this spring is generally normal,” Pearson said in the presentation, which was posted on the website for the weather service’s Omaha office.
This year’s conditions seem to mirror those of two years ago, when flooding inundated eastern Nebraska and caused more than $1 billion in damage.
Snowfall totals have been well above average, and colder-than-normal temperatures in February have led to heavy icing on some rivers.
However, there were some important conditions present two years ago that are missing now.
In 2019, the state was in the midst of several years with above-average precipitation, leaving the ground saturated with moisture. This year, most of the state remains in a drought that started last year.
Also, though it has been snowy in Nebraska, areas farther west and north that feed rivers here have not seen as much snow.
Martha Shulski, the state climatologist, said the 2018-2019 season presented a “worst-case risk scenario, with frozen and saturated soils, a significant snowpack and substantial river ice after a very cold February.”
In addition, there was a intense storm in March that added moisture at a time when existing snow and ice was rapidly melting.
Shulski said many of those same ingredients that fueled the 2019 floods are not present now.
For example, because of drought conditions, soil moisture levels are much lower. Also, until February, this winter was much warmer, meaning ground temperatures are warmer. Those two factors mean snowmelt can be absorbed, leading to less runoff.
“As far as widespread spring snowmelt flooding, the ingredients are not all in play as (they were) in 2019,” she said. But that doesn’t mean there isn’t risk for flooding in some areas.
Shulski said the bitterly cold temperatures this month will lead to ice buildup on rivers, increasing the risk for localized flooding from ice jams.
The weather service agrees.
“There is an above-normal risk for ice jam flooding along ice jam-prone rivers,” it said in its flood risk assessment.
The weather service said the biggest risk is the Platte River downstream of Columbus, which already has seen some flooding.
Last month, the weather service issued a flood warning on the river from Fremont to Ashland after some lowland flooding occurred in areas in and around Fremont.
Other areas about which the weather service expressed concern are the Loup River near where it flows into the Platte River and the Niobrara River from Verdel upstream to U.S. 281.
Though flooding could occur in those areas because of ice melting, it could be exacerbated by heavy precipitation events.
“Flooding this spring will be largely dependent on the location and intensity of additional precipitation and thunderstorms,” the weather service presentation said.
Most people living along the Missouri River face a below-normal flood risk. Only on the southern portion of the river in Nebraska, from Plattsmouth to Rulo, is the risk considered to be normal.
The flooding risk is normal on the Platte River west of Columbus, as well as on the Elkhorn River. All other major creeks and rivers in the eastern part of the state, including Salt Creek, have either a normal or below-normal risk of flooding.
Of course, it’s early in the season, and things could change. More snow or rain, combined with a rapid warmup, could lead to increased flooding chances.
“Flood risk is something we should continue to track as conditions develop over the next few months,” Shulski said.
FLOOD OF 2019: THE AFTERMATH AND THE RECOVERY
Flood of 2019: The aftermath and the recovery
As Nebraska and Iowa brace for the possibility of spring flooding here’s a look back at the devastating floods of 2019.
Nebraska’s disastrous weather in 2019 caused more than $3.4 billion in losses, according to a recently released federal report. Read more
A 92-year-old dam that collapsed March 14, 2019 amid had been classified by state inspectors last year as having a “significant” risk of causing damage.
A man who lived in a home below the dam, Kenny Angel, was swept away in the collapse and is presumed dead, and a quarter mile section of U.S. Highway 281 was washed out. Read more
A four-member team from the Association of State Dam Safety Officials, a national nonprofit organization, will conduct an independent review of the Spencer dam.
The review will focus on what can be learned about the dam collapse to guide future dam construction, according to Lori Arthur, a spokeswoman for the Natural Resources Department. Read more
Even the U.S. Air Force couldn’t stop the Mighty Missouri River from flooding Offutt Air Force Base. Between March 16 and 17 sandbagging efforts were called off as flood waters began to rise. Read more
Six months after what 55th Wing officials describe as “historic and disastrous” flooding swamped one-third of Offutt Air Force Base and destroyed 137 structures, the expected costs of rebuilding continued to mount.
Lt. Col. Chris Conover, who spearheaded the recovery and reconstruction project, said in September that the figure stood at $790 million in September. He warned the cost most likely would rise further — perhaps even hitting $1 billion. Read more
The Platte River swelled into Fremont, turning the city into an island.
Shelters in Fremont alone counted up to 1,100 people, with more evacuees expected from Snyder, Nebraska. And those numbers don’t capture the swaths of people riding out the flood in hotel rooms or crashing on the couches of family and friends.
Those who decided to evacuate left by plane, train line and automobile. There were departures by boat, by airboat and by massive military vehicles with jacked-up frames capable of cruising through waterlogged roads. Read more
Hundreds of people filled Christensen Field Arena in Fremont to hear a National Weather Service update on this year’s flood risk Feb. 4.
The crowd received a nuanced, but somewhat reassuring, explanation from National Weather Service hydrologist Dave Pearson. Read more
Before the water even reached the community, Paradise Lake residents were sent mixed messages.
Law enforcement officials went door to door encouraging residents to evacuate, Paradise Lakes residents received a different message from their landlord: Your homes are safe. Read more
The Bellevue City Council voted to condemn the community and told residents that they had until the end of July to take action on removing their homes. The remaining structures were expected to be razed by a city-hired company in early August.
Jim Ristow, Bellevue’s city administrator, said in August that officials are now taking a cautious approach moving forward because they don’t want taxpayers to be on the hook for the estimated $1.2 million needed for demolition.
Paradise Lakes’ owner, Howard “Howdy” Helm, has told the city that he can’t afford the cost of demolition. Read more
The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers sought bids to close the breach in the south bank of the Platte River that had stranded the city’s water treatment plant during the March flooding.
For months, the plant was accessible only by boat. Now, the water is gone, but Plattsmouth officials have wondered for how long. Read more
Plattsmouth notched a major victory in September when its flood-battered water treatment plant got back up and running, ending months of water rationing.
But the city’s ongoing battle with the waters of the Platte River isn’t over. Read more
Winslow floods.
One in 1996 brought water inside town and into basements, but it was nothing like the surge of water that clobbered Winslow in mid-March, when historic flooding struck parts of central and eastern Nebraska.
So the residents of this little village — where the population that hovered around 100 before disaster struck — are pondering a pivotal question about its future. Go should they stay or should they go? Read more
A group of state and federal officials who met in Winslow in January said plenty of hurdles stand in the village’s way.
Those obstacles include state law, the likely millions of dollars needed to put in new streets and utilities in Winslow 2.0 and its dwindling population.
“We all want what’s best for Winslow, I want to make that abundantly clear,” said Molly Bargmann, a recovery supervisor for the Nebraska Emergency Management Agency. “We want to get to yes, but there’s a lot of no’s right now.” Read more
On St. Patrick’s Day weekend 2019, a violent chute of water raged through a gash in the levee that for decades protected the Nebraska National Guard’s main training site from the Platte River. Floodwaters surged into classrooms, barracks and offices, wrecking furniture and tools and leaving a muddy watermark 5 feet high on inside walls.
The Nebraska National Guard learned in January that it will receive full funding, totaling $62.3 million, to fully rebuild the Camp Ashland training site, according to a statement released Wednesday by the state’s adjutant general, Maj. Gen. Daryl Bohac. Read more
Tons of sand, sediment and silt — some in dunes as high as 10 feet — were scattered across the eastern half to two-thirds of the state by the March flooding. In some areas, washed-out cornstalks are 3 to 4 feet deep. Tree limbs are in piles and topsoil was washed away. Read more
Trish and Salvador Duran hosted Christmas this year for their extended family, an act of hospitality that once seemed impossible after almost 4 feet of floodwater swept into their house in King Lake in March.
King Lake is an unincorporated area, a secluded neighborhood of 1 square mile that sits next to the Elkhorn River and not far from the Platte River, east of Valley and north of Waterloo. During historic flooding in March, the Elkhorn spilled out of its banks, sending water into almost all of the 111 homes in King Lake. Read more
Pacific Junction, with a population of less than 500, was hit hard by levee failures in March that sent floodwaters streaming into town, filling every structure with feet of water. It wasn’t until mid-April that the last batch of residents could return to their homes and businesses and start clearing out flood-soaked possessions. Read more
Mills County Democrats worried all month whether many of the 470 former residents of this flooded town would attend a caucus Monday.
Last March, the Missouri River inundated all 210 homes and businesses here, and a caucus day drive through town showed the extent of damage 10 months later. Most local homes, storefronts and gathering spaces remain boarded up. Only about 20 households have moved back so far, officials say, and the only evidence of the presidential race was a single campaign sign in front of the rebuilt home of Rick and Cherry Parham. Read more
Reach the writer at 402-473-2647 or molberding@journalstar.com.
On Twitter @LincolnBizBuzz.